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PAYSAFE VS PAYONEER - Which is the Better Buy?
Paysafe is about to merge w/ BFT, hopefully sometime this quarter and as most of you know, it is a digital payments company. Payoneer, is rumored to be possibly merging w/ FTOC and also is a digital payments company. So why are digital payments a big deal? Well, digital payments are expected to impact 80% of existing banking revenue and be a $7.6 TRILLION industry by 2024. Furthermore, it is expected that current digital payment companies including both Paysafe and Payoneer will experience double digit annual growth over the next 10 years. Or more specifically, a CAGR of 14.2% as a sector. But there are already big names like SQ & PYPL, why would I want to buy into Paysafe or Payoneer? The answer is simple. The rate at which digital payments are expanding, there is almost infinite growth for companies who can position themselves by having a niche or corner markets in other countries. And when investing you are looking for both growth and scale. Paysafe currently specializes in payment processing, API, Online payments, gambling payments, Dig Payment Interation w/ Business, Receipts and managing them, fraud detection, automated billing, multiple currency support, mobile payments and currency conversion. Payoneer currently specializes in Single & Mass Payments, Partner Networking, Receiving Payments, Multi-Currency Support & Integrated Payment systems, digital marketing, ecommerce. Paysafe acquires revenue based on a sliding scale or a high volume client rate. Where as Payoneer operates on a flat fee percentage. Paysafe is expected to have $1.5 billion in revenue this year while Payoneer is expected to have around $300 million. Paysafe is obviously the bigger company, so we should skip investing in Payoneer, right? Not soo fast, just because they are currently smaller now, doesn't mean they won't be a billion dollar revenue producing company in 5 years. And that means lots of growth in both valuation and market cap, meaning, your stock price erupts with the growth. Payoneer and Paysafe both have big name clients. Too many to list, but Payoneer supports Amazon, Google, Adobe and AirBNB. Paysafe has clients such as Playstation, Steam, Skype & Facebook. So both have big name clients and names paying the bills currently. So which one should you buy? While Payoneer is a strong and a growing international player who is rapidly expanding in India, Japan, Phillipines, South Korea and the UK and although a much smaller company, it has some big name customers. Also note that Payoneer has tripled its revenue over the last 5 years. And on the other hand, Paysafe too has solid customers, much greater revenue and it too is positioned to grow quickly in the digital payments world. Well, the answer seems simple. BFT is the safer bet and is about to close their reverse merger any day now. It's selling for a bit over $15 right now while FTOC is at a bit under $12. Both are based on a NAV of $10. On the other hand, for those of you comfortable with risk, buying FTOC on speculation before the DA/LOI are signed and announced could very likely result in you making $2-$4 share on the announcement alone. Another thing to consider as well, is that BFT offers one of the largest gambling wallets in the world. Why is that important? Well, lots of states and govt's are feeling the effects of C-19 on their coffers from the lack of tax dollars and are either rolling back regulation or writing in new regulations so they can benefit from gambling tax dollars. I expect that to greatly expand Paysafes revenues and profitability as gambling carries higher fees than traditional services. I do feel that both PayoneeFTOC & BFT/Paysafe will continue to expand rapidly, most likely dwarfing the anticipated 14.2% CAGR and that they have a strong chance of tripling in size AGAIN over the next 5 years as digital payments snowball. So bottom line, digital payments are in the golden age of expansion and both of these companies are poised to enjoy their share of that expansion and while neither company seems to be knocking the others bottom out w/ a Donkey Punch, Paysafe is the larger of the two. BFT/Paysafe seems like a sure thing, while FTOC/Payoneer is the riskier play until the DA/LOI are signed. But as usual, with greater risk, comes greater reward. Disclosure: I am long on both BFT/Paysafe & FTOC/Payoneer.
[Scottish Football] How one of Scotland's biggest clubs was liquidated and had to start all over again
Obviously this isn't set in England, but spiritually this piece is within my English Football series. The first six episodes covered Nottingham Forest's 21st century woes, the dickpic that consigned Notts County to the non-league, a reignited rivalry between Derby County and Leeds United, Stoke City's legendary shithouse era, the English Golden Generation of the 00s descending into farce, and Wimbledon FC's controversial relocation to Milton Keynes This spin-off piece follows on from the main question raised by the Wimbledon FC/MK Dons saga. When does a club stop being a club? Is it the legal entity or something rather more intangible? These were questions posed with regards to one of the titans of Scottish football earlier this decade. Background - The Establishment Club Rangers FC has long cultivated an image as Scotland's 'establishment club', it isn't just a sports team, but an institution that embodies a particular way of living and worldview. Alongside other institutions like the Church of Scotland, the club is perceived as embodying traditional and small-C conservative Scottish values. Alongside Celtic (more on them in a bit) Rangers have dominated Scottish football since the league started. No club other than the two Glaswegian sides has won the league since 1985. Rangers have 54 league titles, Celtic have 51. The joint 3rd best sides (Aberdeen and the Edinburgh pair Hearts and Hibernian) have just four a piece. And yet as a legal entity the club ceased to exist in 2012. What happened? Does Rangers FC still exist? It would be impossible to tell this tale without telling the tale of the Old Firm and the profound political, cultural, and religious divides involved. Glasgow's two largest clubs have a rivalry that defies comparison to anything in the rest of Scotland or in England. Essentially Rangers FC and its supporters represent Protestantism and British Unionism, while Celtic FC are considered to be aligned with Catholicism and Irish Nationalism. When the two sides meet, the Scottish saltire is rarely flown by supporters. Rangers supporters prefer the Union Jack or Ulster Banner, Celtic fans are likely to fly Irish tricolours. It is as if somebody took the socio-cultural conflict of Northern Ireland and transplanted it into a football ground. Which is sort of what happened. Ultimately a big factor was migration to Glasgow in the early 20th century - Irish Catholics in Glasgow set up Celtic FC as their club, while Protestants from Northern Ireland (who are historically of largely Scottish extraction) who worked in the shipyards of the Clyde came to adopt Rangers which was located near the shipbuilding areas. Local Scots, being generally Protestant, inclined to support Rangers and many would have shared the religious and political feelings of the newcomers from Northern Ireland. This has meant that at matches both clubs have sections of support who chant about the Northern Irish conflict - some Rangers fans have a 'songbook' including the Loyalist anthem The Sash (which commemorates King William III, the Dutchman invited to become King of England and Scotland who defeated a Catholic army at the Boyne in 1690), while Celtic fans might sing in support of the Irish Republican Army. This involves by no means the majority of supporters, but it is important in setting the atmosphere at games. Rangers FC had until the late 1980s an alleged policy of not signing any player known to be a Catholic. This led legendary Celtic manager Jock Stein to joke that if offered a Catholic or a Protestant to sign for Celtic, he would sign the Protestant in the knowledge that Rangers would never sign the Catholic. I cannot find evidence of any player ever transferring directly between Celtic and Rangers in the postwar era, with the low number of players who have turned out for both having had a 3rd club in between. Another example of the intensity is the way in which the clubs traditionally share shirt sponsors. This sounds innocuous, but the only way to sponsor one of the clubs without triggering a mass boycott by the other supporters was to simply sponsor both. No other football rivalry in Britain has a dynamic like this (Liverpool and Everton did to a far lesser extent before about the 1960s, but sectarianism largely died out there decades ago), even in the days when hooliganism was a serious blight on English football it never quite reached the sort of scenes on display at the 1980 Scottish Cup Final. Which club is the 'biggest'? It is impossible to say. Rangers have had more League titles, but Celtic being the first British club to win a European Cup in 1967 is a fairly potent trump card. What is without a doubt is that they are the two best supported Scottish clubs and their rivalry is possibly like no other. Chasing the Rainbow Avid readers of this series will notice a theme. The 1990s were a boom time for football and everyone involved in the sport. TV revenue started to really take off, as did the prizes for winning European competitions. Many clubs sought to capitalise on the windfall and Rangers were no exception. Their chairman, Sir David Murray, had become one of Scotland's weathiest businessmen by leveraging debts against future revenue. He spent big on Rangers in the hope that they would win a major European trophy and repay his investment. Top players like Paul Gascoigne came to Rangers where before it was fairly rare for big name players from other leagues to move to Scotland. Domestically his investments paid off, from 1989-97 Rangers won nine League titles in a row, equalling the record set by Jock Stein's great Celtic side between 1966-74. Unfortunately this did not translate to the windfall a Champion's League win would have given. While Murray was bankrolling Rangers, other clubs around Europe were likewise chasing the new massive financial prizes. Rangers came close to getting past the group stage of the new Champion's League format in 1992-93, but no Scottish club would enter a Champion's League knockout round until Rangers do so in 2005-06. The debts mounted and Murray sought ways to manage the debts and hedge them against future revenue anticipated from TV fees and European prize money. He allowed the Bank of Scotland to buy a stake in the club with a mortgage allowing them to recover their losses in the event of the club defaulting on its repayments. Nothing to worry about, surely? David Murray had become a wildly successful businessman by effectively managing credit lines and debt against future income to fund expansion. But a far bigger problem was just three small letters. EBT Put simply, Employee Benefit Trusts are a way of not paying tax, it was legal in some cases at the time but is generally illegal now. Murray sought, from 2000, to pay his players through EBTs. This meant that they would be able to offer high net wages to players while cutting tax costs. In Britain most employees have all their tax payments deducted by the employer, so schemes like this and ones where employees are paid in dividends are a way of essentially not paying tax. By 2010 HMRC had begun to investigate the case, concluding that Rangers may have evaded £49m in taxes, a vast amount for a club already overleveraged in debt in a league not known for being particularly wealthy. By about 2008 Murray had had enough of Rangers and was looking to sell up. He had gambled and lost huge amounts of money on the club, which was now saddled with huge amounts of debt. The prospect of paying £49m to HMRC if the courts ruled against Rangers deterred any serious buyer and it took some years for a buyer to emerge. Another serious issue was the sheer amount of debt Rangers had to Lloyds (who had taken over the Bank of Scotland), with fans in 2009 threatening a boycott of the banking chain if the bank called in its debts. Would a buyer emerge and save Rangers from this predicament? Well, a buyer would emerge in 2011. Not the other bit, sadly. Enter Craig Whyte Craig Whyte had once been Scotland's youngest millionaire as a venture capitalist. He bought the club for £1 from Murray but desperately needed to leverage some funds to settle the Lloyds debt, so he borrowed a cool £26.7m against future season ticket sales. This on the face of it should have set alarm bells, even the biggest clubs don't make huge amounts of money on matchday tickets in relation to their massive costs. Whyte also indulged in a bit of tax fiddling. But rather than setting up an avoidance mechanism and letting the lawyers fight it out, he just stopped sending Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs the income tax payments for the club players and staff. Definitely not the sophistication of Murray. Matters only got worse. In early 2012 BBC Scotland aired a BAFTA-winning documentary about Whyte and Rangers, which revealed that Whyte had been once banned from working as a company director for seven years. The Scottish Football Association agreed, Whyte was not a 'Fit and Proper' person to own a football club. At about this time Rangers entered administration. When this happens in Britain, the company's creditors can agree to a 'Company Voluntary Arrangement' (CVA) which essentially means agreeing a plan for the company to continue operating while in administration so the creditors can recover their debts. HMRC, with the outstanding £49m tax case from Murray's era plus the money owed by Whyte's outright failure to pay tax, voted against allowing this to happen. In the absence of a CVA and agreement with creditors, this meant that Rangers FC as a company ceased to exist in June 2012, with all assets transferred to 'Sevco Scotland Ltd'. Could this have been avoided? In the end, the £49m owed to HMRC which proved such a millstone has been substantially reduced and the cases around it are still ongoing. But ultimately, Rangers had vast amounts of debt not just to HMRC. For his part Whyte would be bankrupted by his loan to buy the club and would be faced with a far longer ban on acting as a company director. Sevco FC? Sevco inherited everything Rangers had. The players had an opportunity to transfer their employment to Sevco, which also gained Ibrox Stadium and Ranger's membership of the Scottish Premier League. For the club owned by Sevco to be able to play in the SPL next season, 2/3rds of members had to vote in favour. Clubs such as Aberdeen, Dundee United, and Hearts bowed to fan feeling that Rangers could not continue where they left off. In the end, no club voted in favour of Rangers remaning in the SPL with only Kilmarnock abstaining. This event would generate a huge amount of bad feeling and bitterness from Rangers fans who felt that supporters of other clubs were content to throw them under a bus for reasons not of their making. There was definitely a sense of schadenfreude from supporters of other clubs, watching Scotland's 'Establishment Club' go to the wall. Could Rangers join the Scottish First Division and gain promotion to the Premier League? First Division clubs didn't want to face the consequences of a Premier League problem, so they also rejected it. In the end, the Scottish Football League allowed Rangers FC to rejoin the league in the Third Division, a largely semi-professional league three divisions below the Premier League. Their first competitive game was a Challenge Cup (competition for the two lower leagues in the Scottish Football League) tie against Brechin City, who represent a sleepy town of just 7,000. Clawing their way back up Most of Ranger's players had refused their statutory right to transfer employment to the new company. Nonetheless, the 2012-13 season started well with their first home league game setting a world record for the best attended fourth division match in history as over 49,000 attended Rangers vs East Stirlingshire. A strong league performance saw Rangers confirm promotion into the 3rd tier by the end of March. 2013-14 saw another promotion as Rangers had an unbeaten season in League One (the leagues were renamed at about this time) to secure promotion to the Championship, the first league which would be wholly filled with professional clubs after the mix of professional and semi-professional that plies their trade in Scotland's lower leagues. Rangers didn't make it three back-to-back promotions as they lost a promotion play-off final 6-1 to Motherwell, one of Scotland's more successful non-Old Firm clubs who had suffered a stint in the 2nd tier. During this season they met Celtic in the cup. Some Celtic fans placed an advert in a newspaper claiming that the 'Old Firm' was over and while they had enjoyed a rivalry with Rangers FC they did not recognise the new club as the same entity. This caused some controversy, not just with Rangers fans, but with Celtic fans who were indeed looking forward to the first Old Firm in some time. The accusation that Rangers were 'Zombies' or 'Sevco FC' would become a common one from Celtic supporters at games and remains as such. Rangers won the 2016-15 Scottish Championship to secure promotion, while also beating Celtic in a Scottish Cup semi-final. But, the 'Gruesome Twosome' of Scottish football would once again grace the top flight together. Same as before? Celtic had done very well out of the previous few years. They had won a succession of League titles at a canter with the accompanying European qualification giving them financial muscle the other clubs couldn't compete with. Rangers finished a respectable 3rd, but Celtic once again dominated the league. After an embarrassing elimination out of the Europa League at the hands of a semi-professional side from Luxembourg, Rangers didn't improve on their 3rd place and Celtic won again. It wasn't until 2018-19 that Rangers finished 2nd. With Celtic winning again. Could Celtic's domination be broken before they won 10 titles in a row and broke the record jointly held by 1960s-70s Celtic and 1990s Rangers? Perhaps not yet. 2019-20 started well, Rangers had a fantastic run in the Europa League under Steven Gerrard and beat Celtic at their ground for the first time since 2010. COVID put paid to an increasingly close title race with Celtic awarded the title based on Points Per Game with the season abandoned. This season has very much been Ranger's season though. At the time of writing they seem, barring a miracle/disaster, overwhemingly likely to win the League this year and deny Celtic the coveted ten in a year. Postscript Is the Rangers FC of today the same club as that pre-2012? Displays from Celtic fans would say not, and as a legal entity it certainly isn't the same. But UEFA allows for 'sporting continuity' for a club in terms of identity and honours even if the holding company or corporate structure changes. This suggests something that many football supporters would agree with - a club is as much as community asset as it is a company or business and the stories we have looked at explore the issues when the business and the community collide. Next time, we'll take a look at how Arsenal Fan TV revolutionised football social media while turning their club into a laughing stock
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1. https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%) NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar. https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should. In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase. Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below: https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success. “Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.” https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.” https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing: “Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon. https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.” “According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently: https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress. Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait. https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing: “For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.” “In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.” They are profitable across all three of their current business segments. “Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world. "Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.” Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame: “As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn. The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :( He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :) Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw. I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this: “Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy. “Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative. https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money? “Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.” Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose. I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.” “Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.” Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong. Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will. Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way. Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains. TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here: WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here: https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.” STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon. Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
UK "Clean Energy"/ESG stocks that haven't exploded yet
I've been doing some research into a few UK listed companies, noted below. Velocys LON: VLS -https://www.velocys.com/ Velocys aim is to work with aviation & aerospace to create sustainable fuels and help achieve net zero emissions. Their process transforms waste into clean fuels using a process called the Fischer–Tropsch process, which converts carbon monoxide and hydrogen into liquid hydrocarbons Basically domestic refuse and woody waste is received, sorted and prepared at their plant. The solid waste is then heated to a high temperature to break it down and convert it into synthesis gas (carbon monoxide & hydrogen), which is used to synthesise hydrocarbons using the Fischer -Tropsch technology. This is fundamentally different to incineration; instead of being burnt, the carbon is converted into fuel. This is much better use of household waste than incineration or landfill, plus this fuel would see a 70% reduction in greenhouse emissions compared to conventional jet fuel, and a 90% reduction in particulate matter from engine exhausts. Notably, their sustainable biofuels require no aircraft engine modification or change of airport infrastructure. Collaborating with British Airways and Shell, planning permission was successfully granted earlier this year for the Altato Immingham plant in Lincolnshire (https://www.altalto.com/immingham/), a project that will take over 500,000 tonnes of household and office waste each year, and convert them into over 60 millions litres of clean jet fuel. The plant aims to be operational in the mid 2020s. Velocys are leading this project, assembling and licensing all the technology components into an integrated design. They are also developing a plant in Mississippi that will create fuel for road transportation in the US, from paper and lumber industry waste. This plant is Pre-FEED (completion by end of Q1 '21), and federal permitting completed. I found this extract very interesting applicable for their primary project, taken from the the UK Gov White Paper on our Net Zero future (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-white-paper-powering-our-net-zero-future). “Jet zero and green ships: By taking immediate steps to drive the uptake of sustainable aviation fuels, investments in R&D to develop zero-emission aircraft and developing the infrastructure of the future at our airports and seaports, we will make the UK the home of green ships and planes.“ Share Price: 8.10p Market Cap: £87.05m Previous Month Performance: +24.53% I suspect this hasn't exploded yet, because of tie ins to aviation and subsequent lower demand. However if you believe aviation will make a comeback, and the future is green, then this could be a solid play over the next 12-18 months. I've already taken a 40,000 share position in this and will just sit on this. Perhaps Greta Thunberg may pass on the boat trip and fly to the USA next time. SIMEC Atlantis Energy LON: SAE-https://simecatlantis.com/ SIMEC Atlantis aim to become the leading independent sustainable power generator in the UK. They are involved with the design, construction, installation, testing, operation and maintenance of power projects across the globe with more than 1,000 megawatts of power projects in various stages of development, aiming to have 250 megawatts operational by 2021. Their core offering is tidal power generation from Atlantis, where they are recognised as world leaders in the sector, with operations and projects across the UK, Canada, India and China. The worlds largest tidal energy plant currently under construction in Scotland, entitled 'MeyGen', is an Atlantis project, phase 1A of this is already operational. Compared with offshore wind, tidal hasn't been able to compete in recent years, which is probably why you don't hear too much about it, however the UK government has also proposed a restructuring of the CfDs pots in 2021, where they are looking to separate offshore wind and tidal into separate pots. In simple terms, tidal will have a greater chance of winning CfDs and therefore increased revenue support which will massively benefit the Atlantis MeyGen and other UK projects. They also operate in the Waste-to-Energy space following their acquisition of the Uskmouth Power Plant, Newport, Wales. This formal coal powered station is in the process of being converted to use a waste-derived energy pellet as fuel and deliver 220 MW of power to the grid. This project will be a world first conversion of a coal fired power plant, and if successful will provide a blueprint for other conversions across the world. There is growing public concern about what happens to your household waste, to put it in perspective across a 20-year life of the project, the waste used to produce the pellets would will a volume equivalent to more than 46,000 Olympic sized swimming pools - waste that would otherwise end up in landfill. They also have a Turbine and Engineering Services division that designs, supplies and maintains tidal turbines and subsea connection equipment. Share Price: 19.01p Market Cap: £93.98m Previous Month Performance: -19.09% I'm bullish on Tidal especially where the gov CfD proposals apply, plus unlike wind, the moon rarely takes time off so it's a fairly reliable source of power. Additionally if they're able to show commercial success at the Uskmouth Power Plant then the potential here for growth is incredible, with thousands of coal plants worldwide approaching their end of life and being phased out, conversion to a waste pellet fuel (as opposed to biomass like the Drax powerplant) would be the most sustainable way to both manage excess waste and also improve the environmental performance of a coal plant. I have taken a 10,000 share position in this. Biome Technologies LON: BIOM -https://biometechnologiesplc.com/ Comprises of two operations, Biome Bioplastics and Stanelco RF Technologies. Biome Bioplastics is a developer of highly-functional, naturally-based plastics. Bioplastics are designed so that the biodegrade or compost at the end of their useful life. They are made to be chemically identical to their oil-based counterparts, and can be directly substituted. The production process requires much less energy, and is overall a much more sustainable method of providing plastic in our day to day lives whilst also managing the end-of-life process. Growth here is driven by new product launches, and the trajectory of demand for bioplastics increasing with pressure for a low carbon economy and better management of plastic waste. End of 2019 saw this division report revenue of £3.4m compared to £1.9m in 2018. Quarterly revenues ending Sep 2020 were £1.6m, 48% ahead of the previous quarter and 131% ahead of the same period last year. Stanelco RF Technologies designs, builds and services advanced radio frequency systems. Whilst historically a large part of their business, demand for products produced by this division has been reducing, and as such my focus is more on the aggressive growth on the bioplastics side becoming dominant. Share Price: 185p Market Cap: £6.87m Previous Month Performance: +0.81% My view is that plastic isn't going anywhere, and bioplastics sit in a rapidly expanding market to help mitigate the downsides associated with plastic use. A handful of big clients could easily multiply the sales for this company. I expect aggressive growth for bioplastics to continue, but since this is a nano-cap level and AIM being AIM, really it's a gamble, so I'm only going to put a small amount in this, circa £100 / approx 500 shares. _______ I hope others find this useful. As always DYOR. Comment below if you want to add anything, I know these aren't all pure green plays, we do really need to move away from burning things for power and move to renewables and electric vehicles, however that isn't going to happen over night. The best way to kickstart and maximise value of this transition is to make use of the existing infrastructure in a more sustainable way and managing our waste in the process. If anyone has any other suggestions then let me know.
26 Capital Corp (ADERU) is a new at-NAV SPAC with world-leading online gambling expertise - worth a bet
EDIT - one week after i posted this, Britain's most successful hedge fund manager Michael Platt has taken a 6.5% stake tl;dr At-NAV new SPAC with world-leading expertise in online gambling. Worth a bet on potential to be next DKNG on the hype train
+++++++ Hi all - have had a lot of great tips from this sub. Hopefully this pays some of you back. I have been watching and researching this since 23 December when it first filed S1, awaiting the units to be listed - they are available today trading as ADERU Positions - 500 units @ 10.42 to start. Will be monitoring and building position below $15, especially if attention starts to build ahead of units and warrants splitting and shares coming available to Robinhood. (My other SPAC positions are OPEN, IPO-E-F, PSTH, FUSE, PIPP, ACTC, CCIV and DMYD, 100 to 1000 shares each mostly around NAV and numerous warrants and options around these.) As ever, this is not investment advice and do your own research +++++++
26 Capital Acquisition Corp or ADER is a 240m SPAC with usual terms - 10$ units, 1/2 warrants. Seeking a merger in "gaming and gaming technology, branded consumer, lodging and entertainment, and Internet commerce sectors". I think this is highly worth a play on the online gambling hype if you can get in at near NAV, based entirely on the management which is unbeatable in its knowledge of the gambling industry
CEO Jason Ader has held director level positions at Las Vegas Sands Corp. ($42bn one of biggest casino groups in world), IGT (£3.72bn multinational gambling firm specialised in software and slot machines) and Playtech (£1.4bn multinational gambling software firm) Before starting his own fund in 2013 he was regularly ranked Wall Street's top analyst on the gambling and leisure sector His fund, Spring Owl Capital, is a small activist fund focused on gambling and leisure. They are probably most famous for ousting the CEO of Viacom in 2016 and a crusade against Yahoo CEO Marissa Meyer in 2015. Ader knows the gambling - and online gambling - industry inside out. He drove bWin to a £1.1bn takeover by gambling giant GVC (now Entain) in 2016, and has been driving similar change and demands for improvement at board level at Playtech The fund mostly manages money for a select group of wealthy families, which could be a positive sign for the SPAC (although I don't know how much skin in the SPAC the fund has, if any) Here is a video of Ader from November talking about how he's excited about SPACs. He talks about how he has been advising certain States about legalising sports betting and how to maximise value and liquidity by linking up with European companies in the space (Playtech e.g.??). Ader is extremely bullish on US legalising online casino and more sports betting options, accelerated by need for revenue because of pandemic
Rafi Ashkenazi One of the most highly respected names in the online gambling world, including COO and CEO positions at major online gambling firms such as Playtech and Stars Group (a world leader in online poker and casino). At Stars he led the $4.7bn takeover of Sky Betting to create the world's largest publicly listed online betting firm in 2018. Most recently he led the £10bn merger between Flutter (biggest gambling company in world by revenue, market cap £26bn), and Stars Group (Ader also involved). Also has connections into the booming Israel tech space which is interesting
Joseph Kaminkow Special Advisor to the Chief Product Officer at Aristocrat, a leading gambling software provider and games publisher, previously Vice President of Game Design at Zynga Inc. This guy is a former video game / pinball designer who is credited with revolutionising the slots industry after moving into gambling software from video games in 1999. Regarded as a "legend" and "hall of famer" in this niche. At Zynga he designed so-called 'social casino games' which don't involve real-money gambling but are otherwise basically gambling apps (revenue from microtransactions etc). 130 patents on gambling/gaming design inventions
Greg Lyss This is a very interesting but extremely low profile person. He was Bill Ackman a.k.a SPACman's right hand man at Gotham Capital. Ackman respected him so much that when Ackman set up a personal hedge fund to invest the Ackman family's money, he put Lyss in charge of it. To repeat - Bill Ackman thinks this guy is such a good investor and trustworthy that he put him in charge of investing his family's money. Don't know anything more about him, but I like this association with Ackman, which suggests to me some integrity around management of this SPAC, especially as the gambling world can be very murky. The other member of the team is the CFO of SpringOwl with 20+ years' hedge fund experience and not notable (although clearly competent)
Thesis / potential targets Based on the above experience and many public comments by Ader over the past year, I would be very surprised if ADER is not looking to merge with an online gambling technology provider / existing online betting website / social casino app / possibly a supporting technology provider They are activist inventors, and specifically say in the IPO prospectus that they could look for businesses that can benefit from turnaround or are not being run well. I speculate that their deep knowledge of the European / global online gambling industry means they have a target in mind that they think would benefit from their expertise and US liberalisation of gambling legislation.
1) Ader believes the listing of UK-listed gambling companies in US is immediately big in terms of market cap because of the premium on online gambling stocks in US. He has pitched DraftKings to takeover Playtech and called on Playtech to spin off non-core business. This makes me wonder if he would spin off some element of Playtech to list in US to cash in on gambling hype. This might be Finalto.com / TradeTech which is an online financial platform owned by Playtech. Playtech has been trying to sell this for 200 - 240m since August so it fits. This company provides liquidity and trading to brokerages and runs markets.com a trading site. I wouldn't be that excited although apparently the business has been booming during COVID and there could be a decent pop just on fintech hype.
2) This could be a 'picks and shovel' type data/B2B betting software play a la DMYD, or something like e.g. Israel based CRM software Optimove which works with some of biggest online gambling cos and has links to Ashkenazi. This would be interesting but probably not a huge pop
3) Possibly - given Ader's links to Sands - an online gambling tie-up with one of the big Vegas casinos who are desperate to get into the online betting space (see MGM's attempt to buy Entain for $8bn last week). Interestingly, Sands' owner Sheldon Adelson, previously a major opponent of online betting, has just died. Ader predicted a few months ago that Sands would be moving in this direction.
“There’s no stopping online gaming,” Ader said [before Adelson's death]. “(Las Vegas Sands’) initiatives to stop online gaming, at this stage, are largely historic. There hasn’t been a lot of spending recently to do that, especially post-pandemic.” “I think the company will see the value created by DraftKings and FanDuel and Penn (National) Gaming and others. They’re not foolish,” Ader added. source
4) Ader is very confident that Macau will legalise online gambling in next year or two. Sands is big in Macau, the biggest gambling market in the world. A SaaS-type product positioned to capitalise on Asian gambling would be MASSIVE - at present however, China's attitude to gambling and local regulations mean this is unlikely
5) I also wonder if they might try to take legitimate one of the offshore bookmakers with big customer databases and brand recognition but which have been grey-area/illegal under US gaming legislation. For example, Five Dimes recently announced a settlement with the FBI to attempt to transition into newly legalised US markets. This might have the most hype potential
Potential upside This is entirely a play on management experience and the meme factor / hype around online gambling in the US. I think if they pick a good target - which given their experience and connections seems likely - and get the right publicity and attention from retail investors looking for the next DKNG this could easily 3x and maybe 5-6x if on DKNG-type hype levels. There is currently little spotlight on this and it is a good time to get in at NAV
Potential Downside
Ader has been vocal that he thinks US online betting is overvalued and in a bubble - why is he starting his own SPAC in the space then? Does he just want to cash in while the hype is at all-time high or does he have a legitimate business goal?
If he just wants to dump a part of Playtech which he does not like onto retail investors, this is a bad deal.
Other targets could be e.g. hotel industry or other leisure sector which would be zero sexiness to retail. Given Ashkenazi and Kaminkow's background this seems unlikely though
Usual SPAC caveats apply about potential difficulty finding a target, locking up your money for unspecified period of time, and the fact I may have completely misread the potential and my above thesis might be totally wrong
Obligatory introduction After the much-publicized failure of the takeover attempted by the Saudi Public Investment Fund in a consortium with Amanda Staveley and the Reuben brothers, we're still owned by His Lardship Michael James Wallace Ashley. A certain Henry Mauriss, CEO of Clear TV, popped up in some news, but the only piece of news I could find about the company was that the CFO mentioned in the Bloomberg profile of the company was suing said company. Apparently Mauriss himself was investigated by the FBI, something which I couldn't confirm. His Lardship, however, is still in financial dire straits. His already underperforming retail properties have been obviously ravaged by the confinement and later by measures to reduce footfall. Last year he postponed the presentation of the accounts of Frasers Group (the new name for his Sports Direct empire) for a second year in a row. Given that he's still a keen seller and already had accepted the sale to the PIF, it's obvious that the club is for sale, provided that the PL doesn't obstruct it again with no explanations. Apparently a new buyer has made their intentions public. The group is the Bellagraph Nova Group. The question for the discerning takeover watcher is, of course, are these guys for real? Are #cans a possibility? #Yeswecans? (this is a surprise tool that we will use later). The answer is something that is not for me to know, but I just want to provide you all of what I can find in a couple of searches because the Toon in Reddit is a wonderful place to be. If I am to research on the Bellagraph Nova Group I'll start with the website. Sure thing, they have one! Sure, let's start reading on it and maybe we know what they do.
Bellagraph Nova Group is a leading player on the world stage. The economic and ethical model of the BN Group guarantees a significant impact on global economic and social development.
Sure, sure, but what do they do?
BN is the only group in the world to boast an international presence in all major commercial sectors: healthcare and medical specialty, financial services and investment, luxury and real estate, discretionary consumers, products & services, lifestyle, entertainment, technology and media.
Ok, so they're a conglomerate. 31 "entities", 12 billion in revenues, 23,000 employees. Any idea of what these "entities" are?
A leader in six different main sectors, our Group counts more than 23,000 employees and 31 prestigious Entities operating in all countries around the world.
Nope. Red Flag: if you are so proud of your Entities and their Employees, you could at least name them! Given that they don't tell us what they do, maybe we can know who they even are? Yes, we can! They are present in the most heavily retouched picture I've ever witnessed in my life. The gentlemen are Terence (L) and Nelson (R) Loh, and the lady is Evangeline Shen. The three appear as co-founders, while she also figures as CEO. So, if you keep scrolling downward on the site, can we spot the famous man? Yes we can! Apparently these three managed to meet Barack Obama! For what, is the question? We'll come to that later, or maybe not. First of all, the press releases portion of the corporate website gives us some more insight. The first entry is from the 15th of June, and it's a merger announcement with the DORR Group of Companies. By itself, that's not too enlightening at first, but then I found a Wikipedia article about a Novena Global Lifecare group, which is a goldmine:
Novena Global Lifecare Group was founded in 2010 by cousins Terence Loh and Nelson Loh, both former investment bankers at J.P. Morgan. Nelson found the idea of forming a medical aesthetic group when he found that his mother’s medical aesthetic bills running into thousands of dollars. One of their early investments was a KOSDAQ-listed medical equipment manufacturer in South Korea to develop their own research and manufacturing arm of the group. They also took interests in healthcare companies in Taiwan as well as the PPP chain of clinics in Singapore, renaming it to NOVU and NOVU Genesis. Prior to founding Novena Global, Terence and Nelson co-founded DORR Group, an Asia-based private equity group which invested in the consumer, internet, media and healthcare spaces.
So, the Nohs are Singaporean cousins, the family is obscenely rich if Momma Noh can rack up thousands of dollars in her beauty sleep, and they used used to work for JP Morgan before founding this DORR thing. There's also a very kind (to them) and informative profile which also gives us some more information: Nelson is now 40, and Terence is 42. They love gambling, DORR's name comes from Ocean's 11, and Novena actually makes money on a real thing (cosmetic healthcare for Asian customers). That's all right for the cousins (for now), but who is Evangeline Shen? She's the founder of Bellagraph, the other part of the conglomerate. According to the press release on the merger, that group has investments in jewelry, and
is most notably famed for holding the world record for highest ever online single sale transaction of US$102 million (across all product categories globally)
Shen graduated from a Chinese university, but I can't ascertain the nationality she has and I am unable to find anything on her family. I'm pretty sure that someone in China would be able to unearth more juice out of her story, because the way it's told right now it seems like she's sprung from Zeus's skull like Athena. The press release mentions that they're getting the group headquartered in Place Vendôme, no.10 in Paris. Just for reference, real estate in that place is valued at more than €14000 per square meter. The question that has been building up during this whole writing is clear: apparently these three have the money, but what is the plan that 3 Singaporean millionaires whose empire is built around cosmetic healthcare and jewelry, who have just got an office in one of the swankiest places on earth, have for Newcastle United Football Club? There are no apparent synergies, the club is decidedly unglamorous, and they seem to have zero experience on managing sports clubs. Singaporean millionaires from outer space like Peter Lim seldom work out well, as Valencia is now experiencing. TL;DR these three are Singaporean toffs and why they'd be interested in the club is unclear, although they're politically uncontroversial. I don't foresee any #cans.
Processing img vug0145x89261... We see Walmart as our friend, best prices, rarely out of stock, many open 24/7, and stores mostly every where, the best part of it all is one stop shopping. Gotta love it. Background information showing the beginning of Walmart to better understand about the connection between the 5 by 2025. The first true Walmart opened on July 2, 1962, in Rogers, Arkansas.[21] Called the Wal-Mart Discount City store. Walton opened the chain in 1962 and built up the retailer to be the largest in the country in just 30 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam\_Walton https://www.thoughtco.com/sam-walton-aka-samuel-moore-walton-358040 Samual Walton the Founder of the Wal-Mart chain About Walmart Walmart Inc: helps people around the world to save money and live better- anytime and any where- in retail stores, online, and through their mobile devices. Each week, over 275 million customers and members visit more than 11,000 stores under 58 banners in 27 countries and eCommerce websites. With fiscil year 2019 revenue of $514.4 billion, Walmart employs over 2.2 million associates world wide. Walmart continues to be a leader in sustainability, corporate philanthropy and employment opportunity. Additional information about Walmart can be found by visiting http://corporate.walmart.com. on Facebook at http://facebook.com/walmart and on Twitter at http://twitter.com/walmart. . Walmart net profit 2019 https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2019/03/28/walmart-announces-2019-annual-shareholders-meeting-activities 2020 has hit the people where it creates the most destruction, our small business. One would think that everyone would see the effects due to job loses, the small and medium companies are fighting to stay afloat paying their bills, but not walmart. They have been increasing their wealth by 123% compared to 2019. During a lock down essential services, l do realize that their needs to be food stores included. However their is no reason to keep stores open that carry anything from food, furniture, clothing, camping, automotive, etc... In theory this sound good except the fact that only food is classified as essentials. All of the local food store that just handle food are told to close their doors, this behaviour is just plain bias. We see that our leaders lock down the country, for what ever reason they feel we need to know changing from day to day. We seem to listen to the government news and believe them with no hard facts. The people have been herded into the direction of the 5 monster entities, all of the others must be shut down because of the fear of dying. Here are some facts from Walmart web site, the numbers are sickening. Walmart annual net income for 2020 was $14.881B, a 123.1% increase from 2019.
Walmart annual net income for 2019 was $6.67B, a 32.37% decline from 2018.
Walmart annual net income for 2018 was $9.862B, a 27.71% decline from 2017.
July 2019 As a global citizen, we are concerned about the negative consequences of climate change and believe governments, industry, and consumers all have a role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. We are committed to doing our part by focusing our efforts in the following areas:
Reducing the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from our own operations through:
Driving energy efficiency measures throughout our facilities
Transitioning energy sources toward lowezero carbon alternatives
Driving more energy-efficient modes of transporting finished products
We will help consumers to reduce their own GHG emissions through the use of our products via:
Product and packaging innovations that enable more efficient consumer product use and energy consumption
Consumer education to reduce GHG emissions such as the benefits of using cold water for machine washing
Work with partners across our value chain to ensure responsible sourcing of agricultural commodities that are known to be associated with deforestation risks (e.g. palm oil, wood pulp).
Work with our suppliers to identify meaningful opportunities to reduce our Scope 3 emissions
We will share progress on our overall climate change efforts, including reporting our Scope 1, 2, and 3 greenhouse gas emissions and progress against our goals, via our annual Citizenship Report. https://us.pg.com/policies-and-practices/environmental-policies-and-practices/ Loblaw Companies/ super stores Real Canadian Superstore is a chain of supermarkets owned by Canadian food retailing giant Loblaw Companies. Its name is often shortened to Superstore. Originating in Western Canada in the late 1970s/early 1980s, the banner expanded into Ontario in the early 2000s as Loblaw attempts to fend off competition from department stores including U.S.-based Walmart. Loblaw Companies Limited is the largest Canadian food retailer, encompassing corporate and franchise supermarkets operating under 22 regional and market segment banners (including Loblaws), as well as pharmacies, banking and apparel.[3] Loblaw operates a private label program that includes grocery and household items, clothing, baby products, pharmaceuticals, cellular phones, general merchandise, and financial services. Loblaw brands include President's Choice, No Name), Joe Fresh, T&T, Exact, life, Seaquest, Azami, and Teddy's Choice Coronavirus outbreak in Canada lifts sales by 10.8% https://www.supermarketnews.com/retail-financial/sales-double-digits-loblaw-first-quarter 2020 second quarter high lights Reverue was $11,957 million. When compared to 2019, this represanted an increase of 4824 million, or 7%. Retail segment sales were $11,768 million. When compared to the second quarter of 2019 this represented an increase of $862 million, or 7.9%. Full article linked below: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/loblaw-reports-2020-second-quarter-results-1--887144358.html Match made in food heaven: CV-19 has been the only time where every Canadian felt food insecure. Every one of us, "she says". "People were scared for their families, themselves, because they didn't know the food supple chain wasn't broken; it was just changing" And more change is coming. We currently have over 500 stores donating food but have now committed $ 1 million over 5 years to go towards the expansion of the platform into our stores that aren't currently participatiog in surplus food donations. Full article below https://www.loblaw.ca/en/a-match-made-in-food-heaven Google Google CEO and key executive team https://craft.co/google/executives This group are the ones who have made it possible for the bad thing to be accepted as normal, as well as acceptable. As of October 2020, the net worth of google is estimated at around $320 billion. Google doesn't need an introduction about their control of the flow of information. We are mostly aware of the connections to the powerful on the planet. These entities would be in line to supply all of the peoples needs their masters in control of coarse. It is 2020 and one year ago we had no idea of what 2020 will bring. How many citizens of society knew this was coming? A very small percentage. For the general population their vision is to supply only what they decide what we require, to keep making them richer. The next 5 years will show what they feel we need, this will not include eating out, having out door gatherings as well as in doors. Mostly everything we took for granted in 2019 will be erased by 2025. One might say this is a conspiracy theory, let me remind you that in 2019 we said being stopped from work, and kids not in school was impossible. Look at us now. I will be adding more as the information comes available.
States are not homogenous entities. They are composed of dozens of different interest groups and cliques, each with their own vision for what the state ought to do and what society ought to look like. In functioning states, these groups agree on more things than they disagree on--or at least, the powerful groups are able to monopolize power enough to keep dissident voices drowned out. Carefully crafted power sharing arrangements, usually aided along by some sort of common enemy or common mission, keep states functioning well enough to work as coherent actors in the international arena. But these alliances are not set in stone. Like the sands of the Rub’ al Khali, they shift with the winds. One day, two factions may be the closest of allies. The next, one might overreach. One might think they have become too powerful to need to be held down by the commitments they’ve made to their erstwhile allies. And what happens when they’re wrong? Chaos. Power in Saudi Arabia On paper, the King of Saudi Arabia holds near-absolute power over the country. With no constitutional constraints, it would seem that the King (or more recently, the Crown Prince) enjoys unlimited power in Saudi society. There is no elected--nor even appointed--legislature to serve as a check on the King’s power. If the King wishes to permit women to drive, he need nearly decree it, and so shall it be. Viewing Saudi Arabia through this lens, however, flattens the existing power dynamics in the country. The King’s absolute power is in practice constrained by the varied interest groups that help to lend legitimacy to the institution of the monarchy, such as (to name a few) the military, the House of Saud, and the religious establishment (the ulema). The relationship between the ulema and the monarchy has been critical to the continued existence of the Saudi Arabian state. Starting with the 1744 alliance between Muhammad ibn Saud, the founder of the al-Saud dynasty, and Muhammad ibn ‘Abd al-Wahhab, the two groups have formed something of a symbiotic relationship. The House of Saud provides the Wahhabist movement with protection and propagates its beliefs, and in exchange the Wahhabist movement lends legitimacy to the monarchy. The Grand Mosque Seizure; or, Why Saudi Arabia is the Way it Is In November 1979, hundreds of armed religious militants took control of the Masjid al-Haram in Mecca--the holiest site in Islam. Their leader, Juhayman al-Otaybi, declared his brother-in-law, Mohammed Abdullah al-Qahtani, to be the *Mahdi--a redeeming figure in Islami prophesied to arrive on Earth several years before Judgement Day. For a period of two weeks, al-Otaybi and his supporters managed to maintain control of the Mosque. The ensuing assault led to the deaths of hundreds of fighters and pilgrims. The Grand Mosque Seizure was, in part, a response to the growth of “western influence” within Saudi Arabia. Al-Otaybi condemned the West calling for the abolition of television and radio, the expulsion of non-Muslims, and the removal of women from the workplace. For al-Otaybi, the ruling al-Saud family’s refusal to resist this western influence had robbed them of their right to rule. While al-Otaybi was ultimately unsuccessful in overthrowing the House of Saud, his insurrection did led to an important revelation for the Saudi monarchy: religious extremism was perhaps the single greatest threat to their continued hold on power in Saudi Arabia. Rather than restricting the power of the ulema in an attempt to curtail this threat, King Khalid dramatically expanded the role of the ulema and the religious police, surrendering some of the House of Saud’s power in exchange for additional stability and security. This state of affairs, with some tinkering, would remain the status quo for the next three decades. Shifting Sands Since the September 11th, 2001 attacks and the beginning of the Global War on Terror, the monarchy has taken significant steps to attempt to curtail the influence of the ulema. The monarchy has become much less tolerant of clerics that speak out against the monarchy, often arresting them (though these arrests are usually temporary, they are enough to scare the dissident clerics into silence). The rise of Mohammad bin Salman in the mid-2010s accelerated this curtailment of the ulema’s power. Viewed as a youthful reformer, MbS has undone many of the laws that were put in place following the Grand Mosque Seizure: in 2018, he removed the ban on female drivers, while in 2021, he legalized gambling and the consumption of alcohol. While he was within his rights to do so--again, the monarchy has no formal restrictions on its authority--these actions flew in the face of the alliance struck between the House of Saud and the ulema. Had the Crown Prince stopped there, conservative opposition to his rule might have been vocal, but nevertheless manageable. Resistance in this period was largely restricted to existing Saudi exile groups like Movement for Islamic Reform in Arabia and Hizb ut-Tahrir. A collection of senior clerics in Saudi Arabia rallied together to compose a new Memorandum of Exhortation--a call-back to the 1992 Memorandum written in the aftermath of Gulf War--condemning the Kingdom’s slide away from righteousness and towards western hedonism. The participating clerics were quickly stripped of their positions, arrested, or forced into exile, but their memorandum nevertheless made the rounds--especially in more rural, more conservative communities, where the monarchy had less power (relatively) than the ulema. Still, it spawned little but discontent whispers and prayers that someone would do something to set the Kingdom back on the righteous path. But he didn’t stop there. No more than four months later, Saudi Arabia invited the Bahraini Shi’a cleric Isa Qassim to Saudi Arabia. By itself, this would have created a diplomatic incident--Qassim was, in essence, the leader of the Shi’a opposition to the Saudi-aligned Sunni ruling dynasty of Bahrain, serving as a persistent thorn in the side of the Bahraini royal family. The fact that the House of Saud was inviting him to Saudi Arabia not just as a guest, but paying for the construction of a Hawza (a Shi’a seminary), was nothing short of sacreligious. The moment this news went public, conservative Saudi society flew into an outrage. How dare the monarchy collaborate with the radifa. Whatever control the monarchy had over the clergy melted away overnight, with most every Sunni cleric in the country denouncing the government’s support of the heretics in some form or another. Eight of the twenty-one members of the Council of Senior Scholars, the highest religious body in the country (and also one of the religious institutions most aligned with the House of Saud) resigned in protest. Among those resigning included several members of the al ash-Sheikh family, the foremost family of religious scholars and the direct descendents of al-Wahhab. Even Abdul-Rahman Al Sudais, the Imam of the Great Mosque of Mecca, issued a public denouncement of the government’s decision to fund the Hawza. Protests broke out throughout the country, especially in Mecca, Medina, and the Nejd, and while Saudi security forces were able to break their resolve after a week or two of protests, their discontent did not dissipate. The Saudi government’s 2022 decision to invite sixteen new American military bases only reignited tensions. Overnight, Saudi Arabia went from having no American bases to being the country with the sixth most American military bases. That anger stayed, bubbling beneath the surface. Waiting for an outlet. It finally found that outlet in 2022. At the opening ceremony of the new Hawza 'Ilmiya Dammam, a car bomb ripped through the crowd, destroying the largest building in the compound. When first responders arrived at the scene to treat the casualties, another suicide bomber--this one disguised as a first responder himself--detonated his vest, killing several dozen paramedics and security personnel. Several hours later, on the other side of the country in Jazan, a car bomber struck an under-construction American base, killing several Saudi construction workers (most of whom were migrant workers from South Asia or the Philippines), two American contractors leading the construction effort, and three American officers. Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attacks the next day. In total, some eighty-four people, including three American servicemen, two American contractors, and forty Saudi nationals, died in the attacks, while another two- to three-hundred were wounded. Among those dead were several of the most important clerics of the new Hawza, including Qassim and the Pakistani marja’ Muhammad Hussain Najafi. The other Pakistani marja’ involved in the Hawza, Bashir al-Najafi, succumbed to his injuries a week later. The response from the predominantly Wahhabi Sunni clergy in the country ranged from silence (for those not willing to risk the ire of the monarchy) to celebratory (for those more dedicated to their faith than self-preservation). For the Saudi government, this was a concerning sign of what was to come. Older members draw comparisons between the current political moment and that of the 1990s, when outrage against the monarchy led to the formation of conversative opposition groups and an increase in terror attacks by groups like al Qaeda. And indeed, their fears may be legitimate. Anti-American protests are becoming increasingly common throughout the country, with the country’s American embassies, consulates, and base construction sites under near constant siege by conservative protesters. The Sahwa movement, a peaceful Islamist group affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood opposed to American bases on the Arabian peninsula, has returned in full force after being all but crushed by government repression in the 1990s. Increasing numbers of Saudi clerics are issuing open criticisms and condemnations of the government and its recent activities, posing a serious challenge to the legitimacy of the rule of King Salman and the Crown Prince. In a different world, the monarchy might have been able to find some way to placate these dissidents. The warnings were there. But once the genie is out of the bottle, it’s impossible to put it back in. In April 2022, King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman launched an unprecedented purge of the religious establishment and the non-ruling branches of the House of Saud. Over the course of 48 hours, Saudi security forces rounded up and arrested numerous prominent figures on corruption charges. While this was in and of itself insignificant--MbS had already used corruption arrests to establish his power in the House of Saud in the past--the scale of them was substantially larger than any previous arrests. Moreover, those royals detained through this process found themselves stripped of the rights and comforts they had come to expect during detentions like these: rather than the Ritz Carlton, they instead found themselves thrown into dank, musty jail cells, as though they were any other criminal. This was a signal to the rest of the House of Saud: Mohammad bin Salman would no longer tolerate anything even remotely resembling opposition to his agenda. The Prince’s seizure of power did not end there. Later that week, King Salman announced that the Wahhabi religious clerics would no longer have any temporal power outside of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina. Saudi Arabia, according to the King, was going to become a more tolerant, progressive nation. Non-Muslims would have the same rights as Muslims for the first time in the Kingdom’s history. As if this weren’t an insult enough to the religious establishment, the King then declared that the Kingdom would be holding an interfaith celebration in the city of Mecca. This celebration would mark the first time that non-Muslims were (legally) allowed entrance into the Grand Mosque in over a thousand years--flying in the face of a restriction that predated the House of Saud itself. While King Salman’s decree robbed the Wahhabi religious establishment of its temporal power, it could never hope to so suddenly deprive them of their ability to sway the hearts and minds of the masses. Almost every cleric in the country, Salafi or Sufi, Wahhabi or Shafi’i, Sunni or Shi’a, immediately and unequivocally condemned the King’s decision to reverse a thousand years of tradition and allow non-Muslims into the holiest site of Islam. The Imam of the Grand Mosque resigned in disgust, stating that he would rather die than preside over kafirs gaining entrance to Holy City. Most of the Mosque’s clerics resigned with him.
The Situation on the Ground
The country has exploded into massive protests, attended by millions of people across the country. There are near-constant masses of people in the streets of Saudi Arabia’s major cities, while construction work on the proposed Church in Riyadh has been unable to continue due to the hundreds, if not thousands, of protesters surrounding the site at all times. Every day, their grip on Saudi society seems to slip further. Saudi Arabia has long relied on the cooperation of the religious establishment to quash dissent and break up protests. With that alliance shattered by King Salman’s recent actions, Saudi Arabia has had a harder time containing these protests than ever before. There are frequent reports of Saudi security personnel collaborating with the protesters, often sneaking advance warning of police crackdowns to protesters or allowing protest leaders to slip away from arrest warrants. This environment has allowed numerous critics of the government a new lease on life, as dissent is simply too large and too widespread for the government to crack down on all dissidents at once. One major resurfaced critic of the Saudi government has been the Muslim Brotherhood. Once an ally of the Saudis, the Muslim Brotherhood was declared a terrorist organization in 2014, after its Egyptian leadership was deposed in the 2013 coup d’etat. Since then, the group’s Saudi Arabian leaders were forced to flee into hiding in Qatar, Iraq, and, to a lesser extent, Bahrain. While the Muslim Brotherhood itself is not Wahhabist, and has many doctrinal disputes with the leading branch of Islam in Saudi Arabia, it has nevertheless made significant inroads into Saudi society over the past several months. As clerics and Saudi conservatives have become convinced that monarchy is unable to deliver the Sharia-adherent society they so desire (and worse, that they have little ability to coerce the monarchy into doing so), many have turned towards the Muslim Brotherhood and its promises of democracy. If nothing else, at least the system promoted by the Muslim Brotherhood would allow them to vote out incompetent royals like Mohammad bin Salman! While many of these groups are not openly violent and are content to continue peaceful (if still terribly disruptive) means of protest against the government, other groups are not. Saudi intelligence is reporting a large surge in the membership numbers of extremist groups like Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and their affiliates. These groups are able to tap into the discontent that has manifested in Saudi society, using the more peaceful groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and Sahwa Movement as a front for radicalizing and recruiting disenfranchised and disgruntled Saudi conservatives. Saudi intelligence suspects that the Kingdom’s sky-high youth unemployment rate--about 25 percent in 2019--has not helped matters, with many of the new recruits coming from the under-30 age group. Saudi intelligence suspects that the growth of these dissident and jihadi groups has also been assisted by covert funding from Qatar and the Qatari nobility (and in the case of the Muslim Brotherhood only, from Turkey as well), though as of yet, they have been unable to find concrete proof. Perhaps the most major opposition to Saudi rule, though, comes from the Wahhabi clerics that once lent so much legitimacy to the Saudi monarchy. Wahhabi clerics that had erstwhile been major supporters of the Saudi government took to every venue available to them--the pulpit, the streets, the internet, the radio--and loudly and repeatedly condemned the actions of the King and the Crown Prince, declaring that they had strayed from the path of the righteous and no longer had the moral authority to lead. Throughout the country, these Saudi intelligence and security forces have been overwhelmed trying to track down and arrest all of the clerics that have broken the law--either by insulting the King, calling for the death of unbelievers, or some other crime. Increasingly, they find that the public is providing a great deal of assistance in avoiding security personnel, providing housing, food, and other essentials that allow the clerics to go to ground and avoid arrest. Worse still, upper levels of the Saudi security apparatus have reported that their subordinates are, in some cases, simply refusing to carry out these arrest orders. Finally, elements of Saudi intelligence loyal to the Crown Prince himself are reporting rumors that should have Mohammad bin Salman very concerned. The recent instability in Saudi Arabia has led several members of the House of Saud to think that they could do a much better job running the country than this upstart reformer. While intelligence is unable to pinpoint exactly who is a threat to Mohammad bin Salman at this time, they have managed to suss out that there are ongoing talks between some members of the House of Saud and some members of the religious establishment that a palace coup might be the best way to ensure that their interests are protected. King Salman and MbS go away, the House of Saud can continue with its graft and corruption, and Sharia law and the power of the Wahhabis comes back. It’s a win for everyone. In short, Mohammad bin Salman faces a great number of issues that must be addressed--quickly--if he is to retain power.
Government Pockets Dry Up
(Written by Erhard) Saudi Arabia has been largely discounting oil export revenues to favor stronger relationships with its allies. This was destined to cause problems when $200 Bn, over 90% of total Saudi exports, come from revenues off of the oil they export. These oil revenues are so critical to the Saudi economy, that cutting off the revenue would send the economy into recession. The targets of these discounts were namely strong Saudi allies like the US, UK, Australia, India, Japan, and many more who are all known to be heavy oil consumers. Saudi Aramco, one of the largest companies on Earth by revenue, had shored up many of its accounts and had begun selling off assets to private investors and other companies just to keep itself afloat. The company, a state-owned enterprise, had to consult the government for this, but had really no other way to save itself. There were rumors in the company of bankruptcy, in one of the most profitable organizations, and layoffs had begun. Of the 76,000 employees, the company quickly shrunk down to 40,000 to recoup the losses. Oil prices across the world had never ever been lower. Fuel across the US was reporting record prices of $1.12 per gallon, which made consumers very happy while the Saudi economy was doing damage control, preparing for an implosion. It would seem the only way the company could recover would be to cut oil operations to slow the quantity to the market, and jack up the price to 20% over market value, effectively eliminating the discount and charging premiums to those who formerly had discounts. If implemented, the US consumer’s dream would be short-lived as they would approach prices of $4.15 per gallon, but would likely save the economy.
The Paper Tiger
A recent series of arrests has also brought to light an unanticipated vulnerability in the Saudi security establishment. Early in 2022, the Ministry of Defense announced plans to double the number of active-duty personnel in the Saudi Land Forces in a period of just two years. Assuming no retirements or fatalities (something that is hard to assume, given the ongoing Saudi intervention in Yemen), the Royal Land Forces will have to hire over three hundred people per day. Meeting this requirement in a country without conscription has required a massive increase in recruitment targets, coupled with a corresponding decrease in the standards used in hiring. In essence, anyone with a warm body that can hold a rifle and walk is being allowed into the military. Moreover, the massive increase in junior enlisted personnel has further taxed the brass’s ability to maintain discipline and unit cohesion: the army’s absenteeism rate has sky-rocketed, as there are simply too many recruits and too few skilled officers and NCOs in order to adequately enforce punishments. While the drop in Saudi Arabia’s combat capacity that this has caused is concerning on its own, far more concerning is the fact that not all of the recruits to the Saudi military have the country’s best interests at heart. A recent arrest of an Al Qaeda member in Riyadh revealed that numerous terrorist organizations, as well as other dissident organizations, have infiltrated substantial amounts of their members into the newly-expanded Saudi military. If left unchecked, these cells will pose a significant threat to the security of Saudi Arabia, and will be able to use their military training to greatly improve the efficiency of their parent organizations in the future. Moreover, it will give their parent organizations access to classified intelligence on Saudi (read: American) weapons systems, and likely lead to some of these systems ending up in the hands of militant groups in countries like Yemen. Similarly worrying is the monarchy’s deteriorating control of the Saudi Arabian National Guard. Separate from the traditional command structures of the Saudi military, the SANG has long served as the anti-coup, counter-insurgency, and counter-protest wing of the Saudi security establishment. It is comprised of a mixture of (largely conservative) tribal militias and personnel recruited from the Wahhabi religious establishment. Traditionally, these affiliations have helped protect the government from coups by the more liberal-minded military. In this instance, where the threat to the regime’s existence comes from conservative, religious parts of society, the loyalty of the National Guard has been called directly into question. Some worry that the ousted clerics and the more conservative elements of the House of Saud have compromised the integrity of the SANG, and may be able to use it in order to depose the current ruling family. Whatever the case, most agree that something needs to be done--and soon.
Issues Abroad
Naturally, when things go badly in a country as large as Saudi Arabia, they have a tendency to spill over into their neighbors. Below is a brief summary of some of the spillover effects in neighboring countries. The United Arab Emirates While the United Arab Emirates has long been the most “progressive” of the Gulf States, it is not without hardliners and conservatives. The country’s recent decision to decriminalize gay marriage has been met with considerable criticism from the country’s right-wing. Outrage against this decision--coupled with, Emirati intelligence suspects, but cannot prove, some assistance and funding from Qatar--has led to a revival of Al Islah, the UAE-branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. The US presence in the UAE at Al Dhafra Air Base has also under scrutiny as the Sahwa Movement has spread across the border into the UAE, but so far, the movements are still content to resort to peaceful protest. Bahrain The death of Isa Qassim has sent shockwaves throughout Bahraini society, worsening already-existing tensions in the Shi’a-majority, Sunni-dominated nation. An important leader of the Shi’a community and political movement on the island, Qassim served as a constant voice for peace, frequently working to curtail the more militant wings of the Shi’a rights movement and channel them into peaceful activities like protest and, before the suspension of the legislature, voting. His martyrdom (and indeed, he is viewed as a martyr now in Bahrain) on Saudi territory has led to a great deal of suspicion in the Shi’a community of Bahrain, with many believing that Saudi security forces let the assassination occur in order to eliminate one of the peninsula’s largest Shi’a opposition leaders. Whether this is true or not is irrelevant: enough people believe it that the new leaders of the opposition who have risen to fill the void have become more convinced that the only way to have their demands met is through violence. In the future, Shi’a opposition groups on the island will be more likely to turn to violence in order to have their demands met. The royal family has become increasingly skeptical of Saudi Arabia’s commitment to their continued existence and independence following its actions in Qatar. While they are not brave enough to stand up to Saudi Arabia (yet) owing to their proximity to the country, the Royal Family is deeply uncomfortable with the Saudi coup in Qatar. In essence, it appears to the Royal Family that Saudi Arabia will abuse the Crown Prince’s marriage ties in order to replace other leaders of the GCC as punishment for working against Saudi interests. Given the marriage ties between the grand daughter of the King of Bahrain and the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, Bahrain considers itself to be at heavy risk of one of these new “succession coups.” As such, Bahrain has started to (quietly) search for new allies to help guarantee its security against an aggressive Saudi Arabia. Iraq The death of Grand Ayatollah Basheer al-Najafi on Saudi territory at the hands of Sunni jihadists has led to a dramatic flare-up in sectarian tensions in Iraq. As one of the Big Four clerics in the holy city of Najaf, al-Najafi was one of the preeminent leaders of the Shi’a faith. Candlelight vigils and other mourning ceremonies have been held throughout the country to mark the passing of one of Shi’a Islam’s greatest minds, while anti-Saudi sentiment has been further cemented in the country. tl;dr
Saudi Arabia has dramatically curtailed the powers of the religious establishment, and broken a thousand-year-old prohibition on non-Muslims entering the Holy City of Mecca
There are massive conservative protests in Saudi Arabia. The largely conservative security establishment is sympathetic to these protests, hampering the Saudi response.
The threat of terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia has increased dramatically
So far, two Al Qaeda attacks have led to the destruction of the Hawza in Dammam (and the death of three very important Shi'a marja') the death of 84 people (including forty Saudi nationals, three American servicemen, and two American contractors), and the injury of another two- to three-hundred
Saudi Arabia is facing a massive revenue crisis due to its heavy discounting of oil exports
There is large resistance to the rule of MbS and King Salman within conservative circles, with some suspecting that they will not be in power for much longer.
Smaller conservative protests are occurring in the UAE
In a spell of acquisitions, GVC Holdings made a milestone €1.1 billion acquisition of online gaming brand bwin party in 2016 and acquired UK rival Ladbrokes Coral in March 2018. Bet365 claims to have more than 35 million customers, making it the world’s one of the largest online gambling company. The company has reported overall revenue of £ 2.86 billion in 2018. Bet365 does not provide a geographical breakdown of its operations or revenues but it is estimated that three-quarters of income comes from international operations. List of UK’s Biggest Gambling Companies. Ladbrokes ; Ladbrokes is one of the most accomplished gambling companies in the UK. It was established in the year 1902 and currently enjoys whopping revenue of 2.5 billion pounds. Ladbrokes is a popular option for players because the company offers amazing betting options on various events like F1 race, golf matches, boxing, and many more sports Wynn Resorts, a hotel and casino corporation based in the United States, was the largest gambling company in terms of brand value in 2020 with a value of 3.81 billion U.S. Currently the biggest UK betting company is Ladbrokes Coral which is owned by GVC Holdings. Estimated yearly revenue: 2.500.000.000 GBP. The runner up is William Hill with it’s 1.700.000.000 GBP yearly revenue. Once William Hill was the biggest UK betting company but Coral’s acquisition by Ladbrokes in 2016 pushed them to the 2nd place. The pie charts above show a general representation of the distribution of gambling revenue in the UK. Offline gambling is still the largest sector as this include the national lottery (28%), compared to high street bookies (27%) and land-based casinos (5%) only online betting is larger (40%). The trend from offline to online is expected to continue in the future. We look at the latest Global Gambling Statistics: Comparing revenue, popular games & personal data to discover the world's best Gambling nations in 2021. If you have a question about your gambling, or the gambling of someone close to you, our FAQs from gambling consumers during lockdown may provide valuable information. Try the new Gambling Commission website we're working on, and give us feedback. The Gambling Commission uses cookies to make the site simpler. Find out more about cookies. Skip to main content. Toggle menu Search our website The gambling market is made up of the American, European, Asian and African Market with the Asia being the largest. However, 6 of the largest companies in the world are from the UK and 4 from the US. On the other hand, Asia only has a few large gambling companies but they are huge. Furthermore, not all of these companies are public and on a The UK gambling sector has always been earmarked as a safe and well-regulated destination for gambling companies to offer their services. These qualities have been considered major advantages by the operators to invest their efforts into bolstering their presence there, and for years, the UK has been an attractive destination for them to step into and consolidate their presence there.
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